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What is event trading? A beginner's guide to event trading strategies for 2026
Many readers ask, ‘What is event trading?’ Our experts have researched the topic, so we can bring you our guide to event trading and how to trade in the probability of specific events occurring in many topic areas.
You’ll learn how each event has Yes and No outcomes, depending on whether it occurs or not. You can choose what you think is the most likely outcome and purchase event contracts in that outcome. We will also cover some examples of event contracts in different topic areas, so you can consider which topic interests you most.
What is event trading?
Here’s what you should know - event trading takes place within the prediction markets arena. When people ask, how does Polymarket work, they’re asking about prediction markets and how to trade in them. Polymarket is one of several sites offering these services.
Prediction markets provide you with the opportunity to predict the possible outcome of an event. You can do this via event contracts. Note that many prediction market platforms include multiple topic areas. Here’s an introduction to prediction markets and some of the events you might come across in them.
| Prediction Market Area | Examples of Event Trading Possibilities |
|---|---|
| Politics | Election winners, global political events, next US President predictions |
| Sports | Different football league outcomes, player transfers, event winners, match winners |
| Finance | Crude oil price, largest company on specific date, price of silver/gold |
| Weather | Highest temperature in specific city, precipitation in certain location, major weather events, i.e., tornadoes |
Trading in Yes or No outcomes
Here’s what you should know if you’re interested in event trading. When you find a specific event that you’re interested in, you will find two possibilities:
- Yes - this means you believe the event will occur
- No - this means you believe the event won’t occur
Keep this in mind for every prediction market and event contract you look at. As such, you’ll notice that every prediction market poses a question. For example, we looked at the weather topic and found a prediction market based on the probability of a natural disaster occurring in 2026. This had four conditions attached to it:
- Category 5 or above hurricane in the US
- 10 kiloton or higher meteor strike anywhere in the world
- 8.5 or greater earthquake anywhere in the world
- Volcanic eruption of 6 VEI or greater anywhere in the world
Note that only one of those events must occur for the market to confirm a Yes outcome. You might also see this referred to as the event resolving to a yes or no outcome. Currently, we have found that 18% of people have backed the Yes option in this example and 82% have backed No.
This is likely to change as we progress further through the year. Indeed, you will typically see a graph showing the rises and falls of the event contracts and percentages as time has progressed.
🎭 A multiple outcome scenario
In some cases, there may be multiple potential outcomes. For example, a cultural topic may focus on actors who may take on a particular role. This may bring up a dozen or more names.
In this case, each actor would be listed separately with their own Yes or No outcome. If you believe a specific person will - or won’t - take on the given role (the new James Bond, for example), you can choose the relevant option to match your current belief. As time goes on, you may see new names added as well.
💰 The share price for your chosen event contract
We have compiled a separate guide on how to read prediction market probabilities, but here’s how to work out the price per share. It relates to the percentage of people who believe a certain outcome will occur. So, in our natural disaster example, here’s what you’d see.
- 18% Yes - each share costs 18 cents
- 82% No - each share costs 82 cents
We have indicated the price in dollars for illustrative purposes, but of course, it may vary according to the currency you use in your country. If you visit a prediction markets platform via the banners you find on this and other site pages here, you will see the relevant data and currency for your location.
Regardless of the specific price of each share, if you correctly predict the outcome, you will receive $1 per share or the equivalent in your currency as relevant in your location. This means that you would receive more if you had correctly backed the scenario thought to be more unlikely overall. If you did not pick the correct outcome, you would not receive anything.
Are you based in the US?
If you are, it’s worth knowing that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates and oversees all prediction market platforms available in the US today.
We have reviewed some key platforms here, including Polymarket and Kalshi, currently catering to those in the US. Find your favorite place to trade event contracts, learn how Kalshi works, and note any current welcome bonuses you may receive via the relevant banners displayed on this page. We have carefully selected and reviewed the main options for US-based individuals here, noting the specific prediction markets available on each site.
Pros and cons of event trading
Here’s the thing - you’ll usually find you can trade in potential outcomes occurring across many different subject areas. As we’ve seen, you can look at your favorite sport, follow weather patterns, and predict the outcome of the next election in your country. We’ve gathered the main points here to think about before you look more closely at prediction markets like these.
- Covers many topics
- Straightforward yes/no options
- Buy and sell event contracts
- Complex for beginners
Event trading for multiple topics of interest
Event trading gives you the opportunity to consider the possible outcomes for everything from elections to sporting events and even the price of gold, silver, and other commodities. Read our carefully curated reviews of various prediction market platforms here, noting which options you can use in your location. You will always see the most relevant sites and recommendations if you follow the links in our banners on this page.
Be aware that our guides will help you understand more about prediction markets, event trading, and what to expect from them. It is imperative that you fully understand this format and how to participate before joining a prediction market platform to look more closely at the idea of trading in all manner of potential event outcomes.
Discover our top-rated prediction market platforms
What is event trading FAQs
Where can you trade event contracts?
There are many prediction market platforms available online available in multiple countries. Review our curated list of sites here to see which services you can access in your location.
Can you sell event contracts after you have purchased them?
Yes, you may sell event contracts if it makes sense to do so. For example, you may find the current event contract represents a profit on your initial purchase price, which may not be the case if you wait until the event contract resolves.
What kinds of prediction markets can you trade event contracts in?
It may depend on the prediction market platform you use. However, many platforms offer event contracts on topics as widespread as sports, politics, weather events, and even culture, including popular awards ceremonies.
In this article
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